Mark Carney

Prime Minister — Canada

Country momentum -4 — Quarterly momentum: the Bureau's read on the country's trajectory over the last quarter, from −10 (deteriorating fast) to +10 (accelerating).

• The central-banker-turned-prime-minister — won 2025 on technocratic credibility, now facing the trade storm.
• Advanced G7 economy; macro-stability intact under a technocrat — the credentials are real.
• Dollar-for-dollar retaliation (15–50%) showed Ottawa won't fold — sovereignty priced in tariffs.
• The honest debit: the US trade war is the story of his quarter — $20B hit at 50%, and a $1B import ban on Sep 29.