Kristrún Frostadóttir

Prime Minister — Iceland

Country momentum 0 — Quarterly momentum: the Bureau's read on the country's trajectory over the last quarter, from −10 (deteriorating fast) to +10 (accelerating).

• Delivered the promised EU referendum and accepted the No — democratic process honoured. Plans the first budget surplus in eight years.
• The central bank sees 1.4% growth in 2026, but Q2 contracted 3.0% quarter-on-quarter — a wobble, not a collapse. Tourism and fisheries remain the twin engines.
• Honoured the referendum result she personally opposed — democratic integrity over preference. The youth-jobs crisis needs the same seriousness.
• Very high income per capita with low inequality. The króna's volatility is the perennial tax on stability.