Benjamin Netanyahu

Prime Minister — Israel

Country momentum -4 — Quarterly momentum: the Bureau's read on the country's trajectory over the last quarter, from −10 (deteriorating fast) to +10 (accelerating).

• Israel's longest-serving premier, presiding over three years of multi-front war.
• The war burned the treasury: a $221bn defense budget, debt at 69.8% of GDP, Q1 GDP down 3.8%.
• An ICC arrest warrant plus South Africa's genocide case at the ICJ — the standing cost is historic.
• Polls show him losing the 27 October election — the longest tenure likely ending in defeat.