Friedrich Merz

Chancellor — Germany

Country momentum -10 — Quarterly momentum: the Bureau's read on the country's trajectory over the last quarter, from −10 (deteriorating fast) to +10 (accelerating).

• Chancellor of Europe's largest economy — the continent's industrial anchor.
• Pushed sweeping tax, welfare and pension reforms; the 2026 forecast raised to 1.3% in September.
• Europe's reformer-in-chief: structural pain now for competitiveness later — the responsible long game.
• The honest debit: September's state elections were a rout — AfD 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt, the CDU at 4.9% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.