Trump fatigue, the cost of living and corruption: what the AP-NORC poll reveals about the 2026 midterms

What the mid-October poll actually measured

Polls opened at 6 a.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday in several eastern states, including Maine, New York and Virginia, as Americans began voting in the 2026 midterm elections: all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate, governorships in 36 states, and thousands of state and local offices. More than 50 million voters had already cast ballots early, according to figures cited by The New York Times.

Days before the vote, France 24 distilled the survey that had framed the campaign's final stretch: a mid-October poll by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, the joint initiative of The Associated Press and the University of Chicago, found that 85 percent of voters cited the economy and 84 percent the cost of living among the most important issues in the election, with Trump fatigue and corruption close behind.

The survey, conducted 8–12 October among 1,119 adults via the AmeriSpeak panel with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points, also found that 64 percent of voters disapproved of Donald Trump's overall performance, that eight in ten wanted substantial change or complete upheaval in how the country is run, and that nearly two-thirds felt pessimistic about politics. Democrats held a clear edge in congressional preference: 47 percent favored Democratic control of the House, 46 percent of the Senate.

How the cost of living conquered the ballot

The price story is told consistently across independent polls. A Reuters/Ipsos survey found that 47 percent of registered voters called the cost of living the most important factor in their vote, and 73 percent believed it was moving in the wrong direction. A Gallup survey published on 29 October identified the economy and healthcare as the leading issues, each cited by 50 percent of respondents as extremely important to their congressional vote, with the Iran conflict at 47 percent, income inequality at 44 percent, gasoline prices at 42 percent and immigration at 40 percent.

Reporters for Xinhua who covered Maine, Texas, North Carolina and Georgia in the campaign's final days found inflation and the rising cost of living among voters' top concerns, with many blaming the administration's sweeping tariffs and the war with Iran for rising gas and food prices. Some 86 percent of Americans say the war has been bad for the cost of living, including 76 percent of Republicans, according to polling cited by The Print.

Healthcare ranked as a top issue for 69 percent of voters and the Iran war for 64 percent in the AP-NORC poll; far fewer named immigration and crime (45 percent), artificial intelligence (35 percent) or transgender issues (12 percent). Voters, in other words, ranked the kitchen table far above the culture wars.

The questions no poll can settle before the count

What remains unknown is the verdict itself. The House looks likely to change hands, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report projected Democratic gains of 12 to 25 seats, well above the three net seats Democrats need, but the size of the majority, and which seats fall, will only be clear after counting. The Senate is genuinely uncertain: seven states, Maine, Texas, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio, Kansas and Alaska, emerged as the decisive battlegrounds, and Democrats need a net gain of four for a 51-seat majority.

Also unresolved: the final turnout mix after 50 million early ballots, whether record concern about corruption converts into votes or abstention, and how long the count takes. National Public Radio estimated that counting could stretch over days or even weeks, with Alaska's polls closing last at 1 a.m. Eastern on November 4.

Why November 3 is a referendum on the price of everything

Lowering inflation was the central promise of Donald Trump's 2024 campaign. Two years on, 79 percent of voters disapprove of his handling of the cost of living, and only 44 percent of Republicans approve of it; a number that explains why the affordability theme crossed party lines in the primaries, where candidates such as Ryan Elijah and Abdul El-Sayed campaigned on it with success.

Corruption is the second shadow over the vote. Sixty percent of voters say they are extremely concerned about government corruption, and a record 89 percent say it is widespread in government; the highest level in 20 years. A Harris Poll for The Guardian, published on 30 October, found that 76 percent of voters believed elected officials cared more about enriching themselves than improving the economy, and nearly nine in ten considered government corruption a problem. Congress's approval rating sits near record lows, and its weak oversight of tariff policy, the Iran war and the Epstein investigation has, in the judgment of many voters, damaged institutional credibility beyond party lines.

The election will determine the extent of Trump's legislative freedom and the degree of congressional scrutiny his administration faces in the final two years of his presidency. Voters told pollsters they trusted Democrats more on the economy, corruption and the war, the three issues that dominate this ballot, while the Republican edge on immigration has narrowed.

The affordability realignment both parties are chasing

The pattern beneath the polls is a realignment around affordability. Research analyst Abhishek Kadiyala, writing in The Print, frames the election around four 'I's, inflation, institutional mistrust, the Iran war and immigration, each amplifying the others, and each connecting pocketbook anxiety to a larger judgment on how the country is governed. Tariff policy, cuts to healthcare spending and the costs of the Iran conflict, in this reading, worsened the economic situation for voters even as the administration promised relief.

Trump fatigue is measurable inside his own coalition: 45 percent of Republican voters told AP-NORC they wanted substantial change in Washington, and 13 percent favored upheaval. Democratic voters were more motivated to vote than Republicans; a turnout signal that, if it holds, compounds the polling gap.

Immigration, long Trump's strongest card, illustrates the shift. Only 35 percent of voters view ICE favorably against 56 percent unfavorable; harsh enforcement methods, rather than border security, became the point of friction, and about 46 percent of respondents said they were likelier to vote for a candidate who supports reducing ICE funding. The issue still ranks, 45 percent call immigration and crime top concerns, but it no longer sets the agenda. Prices do.

What a divided government would do to the next two years

A Democratic House would change the geometry of power in Washington. The second-order effects begin with oversight: tariff policy, the conduct of the Iran war, and the stalled Epstein investigation would all face a chamber with subpoena power and a motive to use it. Congress has repeatedly failed to pass a war-powers resolution limiting the president's authority over the Iran conflict; a new majority could reopen that fight, and with it the debate over the Israel lobby's role that has already damaged public perceptions of the legislature.

Economically, divided government would test how much of the tariff regime is executive discretion and how much requires a compliant Congress. Politically, it would convert 'Trump fatigue' from a polling sentiment into an institutional fact: two years of investigations, blocked appointments and budget leverage ahead of the 2028 cycle. For the rest of the world, allies and rivals alike, the midterms are the first hard data on how much freedom of maneuver the second Trump administration will retain, and markets, capitals and central banks will read the House margin as closely as the Senate outcome.

When America will know the result

Eastern-state polls generally closed at 7 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday, with more than 80 percent of states closed by 9 p.m. and Alaska's polls the last to shut at 1 a.m. Eastern on November 4. Control of the House is expected to become clear relatively early, given the wider margins in many races; the Senate, with its seven tight battlegrounds, could take far longer. Counting itself may stretch for days or even weeks, per NPR's estimate.

Follow the Bureau's live coverage on the homepage as results land, browse the full archive of the 2026 cycle, and consult the Factbook's United States profile for the institutional map behind the numbers. The polls have spoken about prices; the count will say who pays the political price.