Final weekend in America: the battle for Congress, a record 49 million ballots, and a legal storm in Alaska

The last 72 hours begin with a record and a courtroom

As the campaign for control of the United States Congress entered its final weekend on Saturday, October 31, 2026, two storylines collided: a record-shattering wave of early voting, and an extraordinary legal offensive by the Trump administration in one of the cycle's most consequential Senate races.

By Friday, more than 49 million Americans had already cast ballots, in person or by mail, according to the University of Florida's Election Lab; past the nearly 46 million who voted before Election Day in the 2022 midterms, with three days still to go. A midterm record, set before the final weekend had even begun.

In Alaska, the Justice Department accelerated its criminal investigation into the Senate race on Friday after reports that aides to Democratic candidate Mary Peltola recruited a retired schoolteacher to get on the ballot because he shares the name of the Republican incumbent, Dan S. Sullivan. U.S. Attorney Michael Heyman said a New York Times report on the alleged recruitment had driven a “surge” of FBI resources, and the department filed further motions to block Alaska from certifying the result if Sullivan loses narrowly with the nonpartisan Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. on the ballot. Heyman called the second Sullivan a “sham candidate”; Peltola denies knowing about the effort.

Trump himself stays off the trail on Saturday, American traditions of politics, Halloween and college football colliding, before returning on Sunday in Kansas and Iowa, exactly 24 hours after reversing his cancellation of those two rallies.

What the ledgers, the schedules and the court filings show

The stakes, as Reuters lays them out: all 435 House seats on the ballot on Tuesday, November 3, plus 35 of the 100 Senate seats. Republicans defend a 53–47 Senate majority, so Democrats need a net gain of four; at 50–50 the vice president breaks the tie and the GOP keeps the chamber.

The early-vote ledger keeps climbing: 49 million-plus by Friday per the Election Lab, and an Associated Press analysis cited by Al Jazeera counted more than 43 million five days out; nearly 10 million more than at the same point in 2022, with the biggest jumps in competitive Senate states. Our earlier reporting tracked the surge through the final week.

Trump's schedule has been the campaign's running subplot: 25 October rallies, then Thursday's cancellation of the Kansas and Iowa weekend events for telephone rallies, then Friday's reversal to in-person stops after Republicans in both states said an appearance “would be better than a tele-rally,” per an AFP report in The Hindu. Late Friday in Daytona, Florida, he said the rallies exist “for one very simple reason: to stop America-hating communists from taking over the United States Congress,” and repeated his promise of $5,000 to every adult citizen if Republicans keep both chambers; of doubtful legality, experts say.

The polls point the same direction almost everywhere: RealClearPolling's national congressional ballot gives Democrats 51.4–43.2, up 8.2 points; Economist/YouGov has 44 percent expecting a Democratic House against 31 percent for Republicans, the Senate far closer at 39–36. Sabato's Crystal Ball analyst Kyle Kondik told Al Jazeera the House is “almost certain to flip” while the Senate stays “much more up in the air.” A September 30–October 5 Reuters/Ipsos poll found 76 percent of voters confident their ballots will be counted accurately.

Alaska's legal picture now has three layers: the Times' Wednesday recruitment report; Peltola's denial, which we reported earlier today; Governor Mike Dunleavy's separate state investigation; and the Justice Department's criminal inquiry plus its certification-blocking motions. Our ten-race Senate overview explains why Alaska will help decide the chamber.

The questions only Tuesday can answer

Nobody knows what the record early vote actually represents: a Democratic enthusiasm wave banking new votes, or the same voters casting ballots earlier while Republicans match them through mail and early in-person voting. The Election Lab counts ballots, not intentions.

In Alaska, the unknowns are legal as much as electoral: what crime, if any, the Justice Department believes was committed; Heyman would not say on Friday; whether any court would block a state from certifying a Senate result under the legal theory the department is asserting; and how much confusion the second Sullivan actually causes, or how the ranked-choice reallocation breaks.

What does the early-voting record actually tell us?

Less than the headlines suggest. Early-vote totals describe participation, not partisanship: both parties built early-vote operations for years, and a record total can hide a Republican surge as easily as a Democratic one. What the record does establish is engagement, midterm turnout at levels never seen, and it raises the stakes of every legal fight over which ballots get counted, from California's 20,000 disputed registrations to Alaska's certification battle.

A Democratic chamber would change what the presidency can do

This is the hinge of the entire cycle. A Democratic victory in one or both chambers would end two years of largely compliant Republican majorities and open the door to congressional investigations of the Trump administration; its conduct of the Iran war, its tariff regime, its use of federal law enforcement around elections. The midterms are, in effect, a referendum on whether the presidency faces a check for its final two years.

The result will also be read as a verdict on the governing record: stubbornly high prices, tariffs that reshaped supply chains, a war with Iran straining American forces and oil supplies. Democrats made the cost of living their closing argument; Republicans answered with warnings about Democratic control of Congress. Both agree on one thing: Tuesday decides the shape of American power through 2028.

The closing argument is being made in courtrooms

The most striking feature of this final weekend is not where the candidates are, but where the lawyers are. The Trump administration has built a nationwide legal footprint around the vote: a criminal investigation and certification-blocking motions in Alaska; a California lawsuit aimed at preventing the counting of ballots from more than 20,000 registered voters alleged to be noncitizens; and suits against roughly 30 states and the District of Columbia seeking unredacted voter rolls.

Why is the campaign ending in courtrooms?

Because the legal strategy serves a political purpose whether or not it wins in court. On Friday a federal judge ordered the Justice Department to stop threatening to prosecute California election officials who defy its directives on alleged noncitizen voting; one more courtroom loss. Sean Morales-Doyle of the Brennan Center for Justice told Reuters the actions parallel the 2020 election deniers' tactics: unlikely to prevail legally, but capable of manufacturing the uncertainty in which officials feel pressured to do things they should not. “It's about creating uncertainty, sowing fear, distrust, chaos,” he said. The final weekend is a contest not only for votes, but for the conditions under which they are counted; and Alaska's certification fight may run long after the rallies end.

What a divided Congress does to the world

The world watches Tuesday as a policy event, not just a political one. A Democratic House would gain subpoena power over the Iran war's conduct and the tariff regime inflating food and fuel prices far beyond American borders. Allies from Kyiv to Manila are calculating what a checked presidency means for U.S. security commitments; energy markets are pricing the odds that war-related supply disruptions continue.

If the Alaska result ends up in court for weeks, with the Justice Department itself a party to the dispute, the Senate's organizing majority could stay unresolved into December, freezing committee assignments and confirmations. A midterm that produces no clear Congress on election night would extend the uncertainty the final weekend has already previewed.

The clock to Tuesday

Sunday: Trump returns in person in Kansas and Iowa, the rallies cancelled Thursday and reinstated Friday, while the Republican National Committee runs its “72-hour sprint” of telephone rallies across nearly 20 states. Democrats close with final-push events in the battlegrounds, leaning on a polling lead held for weeks.

Tuesday, November 3: the House result may be clear by Wednesday morning; the Senate could take longer. Watch Alaska first; not just the count, but the docket: the Justice Department's certification motions and the state investigation will decide whether the result stands or stretches into a legal winter.

Beyond Tuesday: at least one recount is likely somewhere on the map, the California and Alaska ballot fights continue, and the 119th Congress takes shape under the shadow of investigations the new majorities may launch within weeks.