Force structure, readiness, power projection, and deterrence: the Bureau’s strategic assessment of Palestine’s military capability — scored 0–100 across 24 causal dimensions.
The 38.03/100 rests first on Force mass (66.00), Land warfare (66.00), Command & control (65.00). The binding constraints: Air power (8.00), Submarine force (8.00), Nuclear survivability (6.50) — in a causal model, capability can never rise above its weakest observed link. What would move the needle: Air power (8.00) — the weak link in the spending → equipment → readiness → capability chain.
12 of 24 dimensions could not be observed (Equipment quality, Readiness & training, ISR & intelligence, Missile forces, Air defense, Cyber & space…); missing data caps the score — it never inflates it.
Assessment coverage: 52.2% — 12 of 24 dimensions observed. Kernel v10, run 2026-10-04; evidence snapshot: CIA World Factbook 2026-09-28, SIPRI arms-producer revenue, v9 nuclear taxonomy.
Kernel assessment: Air power 8.00/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Kernel assessment: Land warfare 66.00/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Kernel assessment: Naval power 12.80/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Missile forces could not be observed in this assessment — missing data caps the score, it is never treated as zero.
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Status: no standing army and no nuclear program; non-nuclear-weapon entity
per the Oslo Accords, the Palestinian Authority (PA) is not permitted a conventional military but maintains security and police forces; PA security personnel have operated exclusively in the West Bank since HAMAS seized power in the Gaza Strip in 2007; PA forces include the Palestinian National Security Forces, Presidential Guard, Civil Police, Civil Defense, Preventive Security Organization, the General Intelligence Organization, and the Military Intelligence Organization (2024)
the PA police and security forces have approximately 28,000 active personnel, including about 11,500 National Security Forces (2024)
Palestinian Authority security forces maintain security control of 17.5% (called Area A) of the West Bank, as agreed by the Palestine Liberation Organization and Israel in the Oslo Accords, although Israeli security forces frequently conducted security operations there; Israeli security forces maintain responsibility for the remaining 82.5% of the West Bank, including Area B (22.5%), where the Palestinian Authority has administrative control, and Area C (60%), where Israel maintains administrative control (2024)
MILITARY POWER 38.03/100 — The Magna Military Power score is our 0–100 measure of causal military capability — 24 dimensions (mass, equipment, readiness, projection, industry, nuclear deterrence), aggregated through a dependency graph, never by simple addition.
Momentum 0 — Quarterly momentum: the Bureau's read on the country's trajectory over the last quarter, from −10 (deteriorating fast) to +10 (accelerating).
The quarter passed without decisive turns. Governance continued, markets functioned, and the score reflects that uneventfulness.
For countries like this, the real story is always the slow one — and this quarter added no new chapter to it.
