Force structure, readiness, power projection, and deterrence: the Bureau’s strategic assessment of Mali’s military capability — scored 0–100 across 24 causal dimensions.
The 40.95/100 rests first on Force mass (76.00), Land warfare (76.00), Combat experience (75.00). The binding constraints: Air power (8.00), Submarine force (8.00), Nuclear survivability (6.50) — in a causal model, capability can never rise above its weakest observed link. What would move the needle: Air power (8.00) — the weak link in the spending → equipment → readiness → capability chain.
10 of 24 dimensions could not be observed (Equipment quality, ISR & intelligence, Missile forces, Air defense, Cyber & space, Strategic lift…); missing data caps the score — it never inflates it.
Assessment coverage: 60.9% — 14 of 24 dimensions observed. Kernel v10, run 2026-10-04; evidence snapshot: CIA World Factbook 2026-09-28, SIPRI arms-producer revenue, v9 nuclear taxonomy.
Kernel assessment: Air power 8.00/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Kernel assessment: Land warfare 76.00/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Kernel assessment: Naval power 12.80/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Missile forces could not be observed in this assessment — missing data caps the score, it is never treated as zero.
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Status: Non-nuclear-weapon state; party to the NPT
Malian Armed Forces (Forces Armées Maliennes or FAMa): Army (l’Armée de Terre), Air Force (l’Armée de l’Air); National Guard (la Garde Nationale du Mali); National Gendarmerie of Mali (Gendarmerie Nationale du Mali) (2025)
information varies; estimated 35-40,000 active FAMa, Gendarmerie, and National Guard (2025)
the FAMa's inventory includes mostly Soviet-era weapons and equipment along with smaller quantities of more modern material from a variety of suppliers, including France, Russia, South Africa, Türkiye, and the UAE (2025)
18 years of age for men and women for selective compulsory and voluntary military service; 24-month compulsory service obligation (2025)
the FAMa is responsible for the defense of the country’s sovereignty and territory, but also has some domestic security duties, including the maintenance of public order and support to law enforcement; it also participates in socio-economic development projects; the military has traditionally played a large role in Mali’s politics; prior to the coup in August 2020 and military takeover in May 2021, it had intervened in the political arena at least five times since the country gained independence in 1960 (1968, 1976, 1978, 1991, 2012) the FAMa and other security forces are actively engaged in combat operations against several insurgent/terrorist groups affiliated with al-Qa'ida and the Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham (ISIS), as well as other armed rebel organizations, communal militias, and criminal bands spread across the central, northern, and southern regions of the country; a large portion of the country--up to 50% by some estimates--is outside of government control the FAMa and the remainder of the security forces collapsed in 2012 during the fighting against Tuareg rebels and Islamic militants and were rebuilt beginning in 2013 with external assistance from the EU and the UN; the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) and the EU Training Mission in Mali (EUTM) ended their missions in 2023 and 2024, respectively; France intervened militarily in Mali in 2013 to assist with regaining the northern half of the country from rebel and Islamic militant groups; French troops withdrew in 2022; since 2021, Mali has increased security ties with Russia, which has provided equipment, training, and other forms of military support (2025)
MILITARY POWER 40.95/100 — The Magna Military Power score is our 0–100 measure of causal military capability — 24 dimensions (mass, equipment, readiness, projection, industry, nuclear deterrence), aggregated through a dependency graph, never by simple addition.
Momentum 0 — Quarterly momentum: the Bureau's read on the country's trajectory over the last quarter, from −10 (deteriorating fast) to +10 (accelerating).
Steadiness was the quarter's defining trait: no rupture, no windfall, no surprise strong enough to move the score.
The trajectory remains set by fundamentals that change over years, not quarters — and this quarter changed little.
