Force structure, readiness, power projection, and deterrence: the Bureau’s strategic assessment of Madagascar’s military capability — scored 0–100 across 24 causal dimensions.
The 39.47/100 rests first on Force mass (78.00), Land warfare (78.00), Command & control (65.00). The binding constraints: Air power (8.00), Submarine force (8.00), Nuclear survivability (6.50) — in a causal model, capability can never rise above its weakest observed link. What would move the needle: Air power (8.00) — the weak link in the spending → equipment → readiness → capability chain.
10 of 24 dimensions could not be observed (Equipment quality, ISR & intelligence, Missile forces, Air defense, Cyber & space, Strategic lift…); missing data caps the score — it never inflates it.
Assessment coverage: 60.9% — 14 of 24 dimensions observed. Kernel v10, run 2026-10-04; evidence snapshot: CIA World Factbook 2026-09-28, SIPRI arms-producer revenue, v9 nuclear taxonomy.
Kernel assessment: Air power 8.00/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Kernel assessment: Land warfare 78.00/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Kernel assessment: Naval power 28.80/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Missile forces could not be observed in this assessment — missing data caps the score, it is never treated as zero.
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Status: Non-nuclear-weapon state; party to the NPT
Madagascar Armed Forces (aka Armed forces of the Republic of Madagascar); Malagasy Army, Naval Forces (or National Navy), Air Force; Malagasy National Gendarmerie (2025)
estimated 13,000 Armed Forces; estimated 10,000 Gendarmerie (2025)
the military's inventory consists mostly of older or secondhand armaments originating from countries such as France, South Africa, the former Soviet Union, the UAE, the UK, and the US (2025)
18 years of age for voluntary military service for men and women; service obligation 18 months; conscription available in times of national emergency or war (2025)
the military’s responsibilities include ensuring sovereignty and territorial integrity and protecting Madagascar’s maritime domain, particularly against piracy, drug trafficking, and smuggling; it also assists the Gendarmerie with maintaining law and order in rural areas, largely in areas affected by banditry, cattle rustling, and criminal groups; the military has a history of influence in domestic politics and seized control of the government in October 2025; security relationships have included France, India, and Russia; Madagascar's small Navy has traditionally looked to India for assistance with maritime security (2025)
MILITARY POWER 39.47/100 — The Magna Military Power score is our 0–100 measure of causal military capability — 24 dimensions (mass, equipment, readiness, projection, industry, nuclear deterrence), aggregated through a dependency graph, never by simple addition.
Momentum 0 — Quarterly momentum: the Bureau's read on the country's trajectory over the last quarter, from −10 (deteriorating fast) to +10 (accelerating).
Jul–Sep 2026 came and went without leaving a mark on the country's trajectory. Continuity, not change, is the story.
For a small or mid-sized state, that is often the good outcome: no shock to absorb, no crisis to manage.
