Force structure, readiness, power projection, and deterrence: the Bureau’s strategic assessment of Côte d'Ivoire’s military capability — scored 0–100 across 24 causal dimensions.
The 31.06/100 rests first on Force mass (78.00), Command & control (65.00), Land warfare (58.45). The binding constraints: Air power (8.00), Submarine force (8.00), Nuclear survivability (6.50) — in a causal model, capability can never rise above its weakest observed link. What would move the needle: Air power (8.00) — the weak link in the spending → equipment → readiness → capability chain.
7 of 24 dimensions could not be observed (ISR & intelligence, Missile forces, Air defense, Cyber & space, Strategic lift, Overseas basing…); missing data caps the score — it never inflates it.
Assessment coverage: 73.9% — 17 of 24 dimensions observed. Kernel v10, run 2026-10-04; evidence snapshot: CIA World Factbook 2026-09-28, SIPRI arms-producer revenue, v9 nuclear taxonomy.
Kernel assessment: Air power 8.00/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Kernel assessment: Land warfare 58.45/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Kernel assessment: Naval power 22.80/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Missile forces could not be observed in this assessment — missing data caps the score, it is never treated as zero.
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Status: Non-nuclear-weapon state; party to the NPT
Armed Forces of Cote d'Ivoire (Forces Armees de Cote d'Ivoire, FACI; aka Republican Forces of Ivory Coast, FRCI): Army, National Navy, Air Force, Special Forces; National Gendarmerie Ministry of Security and Civil Protection: National Police (2025)
approximately 25-30,000 active FACI, including Gendarmerie personnel (2025)
the inventory of the FACI consists mostly of older or secondhand armaments, typically of French or Soviet-era origin; in recent years, it has received small quantities of newer and secondhand equipment from a variety of suppliers, including Bulgaria, China, France, Israel, South Africa, and the US (2025)
18-26 (up to 35 for healthcare professionals) years of age for voluntary military service for men and women; conscription is authorized but reportedly not enforced (2025)
180 Central African Republic (MINUSCA) (2025)
the military (FACI) is responsible for external defense but also has a considerable internal role supporting the National Gendarmerie and other internal security forces; key areas of focus for the FACI are the country's porous international borders and the threat posed by Islamic militants associated with the al-Qa’ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) terrorist group operating across the border in Burkina Faso and Mali; AQIM militants conducted attacks in the country in 2016 and 2020; Côte d’Ivoire since 2016 has stepped up border security and completed building a joint counter-terrorism training center with France near Abidjan in 2020; Cote d'Ivoire has long maintained a close security relationship with France the FACI has mutinied several times since the late 1990s, most recently in 2017, and has had a large role in the country’s political turmoil; it was established in 1960 from home defense units the French colonial government began standing up in 1950 (2025)
MILITARY POWER 31.06/100 — The Magna Military Power score is our 0–100 measure of causal military capability — 24 dimensions (mass, equipment, readiness, projection, industry, nuclear deterrence), aggregated through a dependency graph, never by simple addition.
Momentum 0 — Quarterly momentum: the Bureau's read on the country's trajectory over the last quarter, from −10 (deteriorating fast) to +10 (accelerating).
Nothing in Jul–Sep 2026 moved the needle. The institutions functioned, the economy ran its course, and the world looked elsewhere.
That is the honest note: a quarter of normalcy, scored as such.
