Force structure, readiness, power projection, and deterrence: the Bureau’s strategic assessment of Algeria’s military capability — scored 0–100 across 24 causal dimensions.
The 35.26/100 rests first on Readiness & training (85.00), Command & control (65.00), Force mass (61.06). The binding constraints: Air power (8.00), Submarine force (8.00), Nuclear survivability (6.50) — in a causal model, capability can never rise above its weakest observed link. What would move the needle: Air power (8.00) — the weak link in the spending → equipment → readiness → capability chain.
2 of 24 dimensions could not be observed (Missile forces, Air defense); missing data caps the score — it never inflates it.
Assessment coverage: 95.7% — 22 of 24 dimensions observed. Kernel v10, run 2026-10-04; evidence snapshot: CIA World Factbook 2026-09-28, SIPRI arms-producer revenue, v9 nuclear taxonomy.
Kernel assessment: Air power 8.00/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Kernel assessment: Land warfare 54.54/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Kernel assessment: Naval power 30.40/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Missile forces could not be observed in this assessment — missing data caps the score, it is never treated as zero.
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Status: non-nuclear-weapon state
Algerian People's National Army (ANP): Land Forces, Naval Forces (includes Coast Guard), Air Forces, Territorial Air Defense Forces, Republican Guard, National Gendarmerie Ministry of Interior: General Directorate of National Security (national police) (2025)
information varies; estimated 200,000 active ANP, including the National Gendarmerie (2025)
the Algerian military has traditionally been armed mostly with Russian and Soviet-era weapons systems and equipment; over the past decade, it has made investments in acquiring more modern armored vehicles, air defense systems, fighter aircraft, missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles, and warships, largely from Russia, its traditional supplier, but also China and Western European suppliers such as Germany (2025)
18 years of age for voluntary military service for men and women; 19 years of age for mandatory national service for men (all Algerian men must register at age 17); 12 months national service obligation (2025)
the ANP is responsible for external defense but also has some internal security responsibilities; key areas of concern include border and maritime security, terrorism, regional instability, and tensions with Morocco; Algeria supports the pro-independence Polisario Front in Moroccan Sahara and accuses Morocco of supporting the Algerian separatist Movement for the Autonomy of Kabylie (MAK); border security and counterterrorism have received additional focus since the Arab Spring events of 2011 and the rise of terrorist threats emanating from Libya and the Sahel; the Army and Ministry of Defense (MND) paramilitary forces of the Gendarmerie and the border guards have beefed up their presence along the frontiers with Tunisia, Libya, Niger, and Mali to interdict and deter cross-border attacks by Islamist militant groups; the ANP and MND paramilitary forces have also increased counterterrorism cooperation with some neighboring countries, particularly Tunisia, including joint operations the ANP has also played a large role in the country’s politics since independence in 1962, including coups in 1965 and 1991; it was a key backer of BOUTEFLIKA’s election in 1999 and remained a center of power during his 20-year rule; the military was instrumental in BOUTEFLIKA’s resignation in 2019, when it withdrew support and called for him to be removed from office (2024)
MILITARY POWER 35.26/100 — The Magna Military Power score is our 0–100 measure of causal military capability — 24 dimensions (mass, equipment, readiness, projection, industry, nuclear deterrence), aggregated through a dependency graph, never by simple addition.
Momentum 0 — Quarterly momentum: the Bureau's read on the country's trajectory over the last quarter, from −10 (deteriorating fast) to +10 (accelerating).
The quarter's signal was silence: no major domestic development, no external shock, no diplomatic breakthrough.
The country's course remains what it was in June — set by structural realities that no single quarter rewrites.
