Force structure, readiness, power projection, and deterrence: the Bureau’s strategic assessment of Uzbekistan’s military capability — scored 0–100 across 24 causal dimensions.
The 27.76/100 rests first on Readiness & training (85.00), Force mass (79.00), Command & control (75.00). The binding constraints: Air power (8.00), Submarine force (8.00), Nuclear survivability (6.50) — in a causal model, capability can never rise above its weakest observed link. What would move the needle: Air power (8.00) — the weak link in the spending → equipment → readiness → capability chain.
7 of 24 dimensions could not be observed (ISR & intelligence, Missile forces, Air defense, Cyber & space, Strategic lift, Overseas basing…); missing data caps the score — it never inflates it.
Assessment coverage: 73.9% — 17 of 24 dimensions observed. Kernel v10, run 2026-10-04; evidence snapshot: CIA World Factbook 2026-09-28, SIPRI arms-producer revenue, v9 nuclear taxonomy.
Kernel assessment: Air power 8.00/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Kernel assessment: Land warfare 59.00/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Kernel assessment: Naval power 12.80/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Missile forces could not be observed in this assessment — missing data caps the score, it is never treated as zero.
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Status: non-nuclear-weapon state (NPT party)
Armed Forces of Uzbekistan: Army, Air and Air Defense Forces; National Guard Ministry of Internal Affairs: Internal Security Troops, Border Guards, police (2024)
limited available information; estimated 50,000 active Armed Forces (2025)
the Uzbek Armed Forces use mainly Russian or Soviet-era armaments with smaller quantities of items from suppliers such as China, Türkiye, and the US; Uzbekistan has a small defense industry, which is involved in repairing and maintaining aircraft and armored vehicles, as well as producing light armored vehicles, unmanned aerial vehicles/drones, and other military items (2025)
18-30 for voluntary/contract service for men and women; 18-27 years of age for compulsory military service for men with a 12-month service obligation (2025)
the military’s responsibilities include ensuring the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, securing its borders, and assisting with internal security; regional security and international terrorism are areas of concern; Uzbekistan joined the Russian-sponsored Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in the 1990s but withdrew in 1999; it returned in 2006 but left again in 2012; although not part of CSTO, Uzbekistan continues to maintain defense ties with Russia, including joint military exercises and defense industrial cooperation; it also has defense ties with other regional countries, including Azerbaijan, China, India, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, and Turkey; it is part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and participates in SCO training exercises (2025)
MILITARY POWER 27.76/100 — The Magna Military Power score is our 0–100 measure of causal military capability — 24 dimensions (mass, equipment, readiness, projection, industry, nuclear deterrence), aggregated through a dependency graph, never by simple addition.
Momentum 0 — Quarterly momentum: the Bureau's read on the country's trajectory over the last quarter, from −10 (deteriorating fast) to +10 (accelerating).
A quiet quarter: no major shocks, no breakthroughs. The country's trajectory is set by structural forces larger than any single season.
The honest reading is steadiness — neither crisis nor windfall — with the long currents of demography, trade and institutions deciding more than any three months.
