Force structure, readiness, power projection, and deterrence: the Bureau’s strategic assessment of Tunisia’s military capability — scored 0–100 across 24 causal dimensions.
The 33.18/100 rests first on Readiness & training (85.00), Command & control (80.00), Alliances (80.00). The binding constraints: Air power (8.00), Submarine force (8.00), Nuclear survivability (6.50) — in a causal model, capability can never rise above its weakest observed link. What would move the needle: Air power (8.00) — the weak link in the spending → equipment → readiness → capability chain.
6 of 24 dimensions could not be observed (ISR & intelligence, Missile forces, Air defense, Cyber & space, Strategic lift, Expeditionary capability); missing data caps the score — it never inflates it.
Assessment coverage: 78.3% — 18 of 24 dimensions observed. Kernel v10, run 2026-10-04; evidence snapshot: CIA World Factbook 2026-09-28, SIPRI arms-producer revenue, v9 nuclear taxonomy.
Kernel assessment: Air power 8.00/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Kernel assessment: Land warfare 55.73/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Kernel assessment: Naval power 28.80/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Missile forces could not be observed in this assessment — missing data caps the score, it is never treated as zero.
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Status: non-nuclear-weapon state (NPT party)
Tunisian Armed Forces (Forces Armées Tunisiennes, FAT): Tunisian Army (includes Air Defense Force), Tunisian Navy, Tunisia Air Force Ministry of Interior (MoI): Internal Security Forces (National Police, National Guard) (2025)
approximately 35,000 active-duty Armed Forces (2025)
the Tunisian military's inventory consists mostly of older or secondhand equipment from a variety of suppliers, including Austria, France, Italy, Türkiye, and the US (2025)
18 years of age for voluntary service for men and women; men 20-35 years of age subject to 12 months of compulsory national service (2025)
840 Central African Republic (MINUSCA) (2025)
the Tunisian Armed Forces (FAT) are responsible for territorial defense and internal security; operational areas of focus include counterterrorism and assisting with securing the border regions, particularly along the frontiers with Algerian and Libya the FAT conducts bilateral and multinational training exercises with a variety of countries, including Algeria and other North African and Middle Eastern countries, France, and the US, as well as NATO; it also participates in UN peacekeeping operations; Tunisia has Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA) status with the US, a designation under US law that provides foreign partners with certain benefits in the areas of defense trade and security cooperation (2025)
MILITARY POWER 33.18/100 — The Magna Military Power score is our 0–100 measure of causal military capability — 24 dimensions (mass, equipment, readiness, projection, industry, nuclear deterrence), aggregated through a dependency graph, never by simple addition.
Momentum 0 — Quarterly momentum: the Bureau's read on the country's trajectory over the last quarter, from −10 (deteriorating fast) to +10 (accelerating).
Steadiness was the quarter's defining trait: no rupture, no windfall, no surprise strong enough to move the score.
The trajectory remains set by fundamentals that change over years, not quarters — and this quarter changed little.
