Force structure, readiness, power projection, and deterrence: the Bureau’s strategic assessment of Paraguay’s military capability — scored 0–100 across 24 causal dimensions.
The 28.11/100 rests first on Force mass (71.00), Command & control (65.00), Land warfare (54.64). The binding constraints: Air power (8.00), Submarine force (8.00), Nuclear survivability (6.50) — in a causal model, capability can never rise above its weakest observed link. What would move the needle: Air power (8.00) — the weak link in the spending → equipment → readiness → capability chain.
7 of 24 dimensions could not be observed (ISR & intelligence, Missile forces, Air defense, Cyber & space, Strategic lift, Overseas basing…); missing data caps the score — it never inflates it.
Assessment coverage: 73.9% — 17 of 24 dimensions observed. Kernel v10, run 2026-10-04; evidence snapshot: CIA World Factbook 2026-09-28, SIPRI arms-producer revenue, v9 nuclear taxonomy.
Kernel assessment: Air power 8.00/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Kernel assessment: Land warfare 54.64/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Kernel assessment: Naval power 12.80/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Missile forces could not be observed in this assessment — missing data caps the score, it is never treated as zero.
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Status: non-nuclear-weapon state
Armed Forces of Paraguay (Fuerzas Armadas de Paraguay; aka Armed Forces of the Nation or Fuerzas Armadas de la Nación): Paraguayan Army (Ejército Paraguayo), Paraguayan Navy (Armada Paraguaya; includes marines), Paraguayan Air Force (Fuerza Aérea Paraguaya) Ministry of Internal Affairs: National Police of Paraguay (Policía Nacional del Paraguay, PNP) (2025)
approximately 15,000 active duty Armed Forces (2025)
the military's inventory is comprised of mostly older or obsolescent equipment from a variety of foreign suppliers, particularly Brazil and the US; in recent years, the military has received small quantities of more modern equipment, such as light attack aircraft from Brazil and secondhand helicopters from Taiwan (2025)
18-25 years of age for voluntary service for men and women; all men 18-25 are required to perform military service for at least 12 months (2025)
the Paraguayan military is responsible for external defense and has a role in domestic security duties; it provides support for natural disasters and cooperates with the National Police and other internal security organizations in combating the Paraguayan People’s Army (Ejército del Pueblo Paraguayo or EPP) and transnational criminal organizations, largely narcotics traffickers; the EPP is a small, domestic criminal/guerrilla group operating in the rural northern part of the country along the border with Brazil; the activities of the EPP and its offshoots—Marsical López’s Army (EML) and the Armed Peasant Association (ACA)—have consisted largely of isolated attacks on remote police and army posts, or against ranchers and peasants accused of aiding Paraguayan security forces the Paraguayan military has deployed small numbers of troops on UN peacekeeping missions and cooperates with neighboring countries, such as Argentina and Brazil, on security issues, particularly organized crime and narco-trafficking in what is known as the Tri-Border Area; Paraguay has not fought a war against a neighboring country since the Chaco War with Bolivia in the 1930s (2025)
MILITARY POWER 28.11/100 — The Magna Military Power score is our 0–100 measure of causal military capability — 24 dimensions (mass, equipment, readiness, projection, industry, nuclear deterrence), aggregated through a dependency graph, never by simple addition.
Momentum 0 — Quarterly momentum: the Bureau's read on the country's trajectory over the last quarter, from −10 (deteriorating fast) to +10 (accelerating).
A quiet quarter: no major shocks, no breakthroughs. The country's trajectory is set by structural forces larger than any single season.
The honest reading is steadiness — neither crisis nor windfall — with the long currents of demography, trade and institutions deciding more than any three months.
