Force structure, readiness, power projection, and deterrence: the Bureau’s strategic assessment of Mozambique’s military capability — scored 0–100 across 24 causal dimensions.
The 43.26/100 rests first on Force mass (78.00), Land warfare (78.00), Mobilization (70.00). The binding constraints: Air power (8.00), Submarine force (8.00), Nuclear survivability (6.50) — in a causal model, capability can never rise above its weakest observed link. What would move the needle: Air power (8.00) — the weak link in the spending → equipment → readiness → capability chain.
10 of 24 dimensions could not be observed (Equipment quality, ISR & intelligence, Missile forces, Air defense, Cyber & space, Strategic lift…); missing data caps the score — it never inflates it.
Assessment coverage: 60.9% — 14 of 24 dimensions observed. Kernel v10, run 2026-10-04; evidence snapshot: CIA World Factbook 2026-09-28, SIPRI arms-producer revenue, v9 nuclear taxonomy.
Kernel assessment: Air power 8.00/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Kernel assessment: Land warfare 78.00/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Kernel assessment: Naval power 28.80/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Missile forces could not be observed in this assessment — missing data caps the score, it is never treated as zero.
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Status: Non-nuclear-weapon state; party to the NPT
Armed Forces for the Defense of Mozambique (Forcas Armadas de Defesa de Mocambique, FADM): Army, Mozambique Navy, Mozambique Air Force Ministry of Interior: Mozambique National Police (PRM; includes the Rapid Intervention Unit, UIR), the National Criminal Investigation Service (SERNIC), Border Security Force; other security forces include the Presidential Guard and the Force for the Protection of High-Level Individuals (2025)
estimated 12,000 active FADM (2025)
the FADM's inventory consists primarily of Soviet-era armaments, although in recent years it has received some secondhand equipment from a number of countries, including India, South Africa, and the UAE, mostly as donations (2025)
registration for military service is mandatory for all men and women at 18 years of age; 18-35 years of age for selective compulsory military service; 18 years of age for voluntary service for men and women; initial 60-month service obligation (2025)
the FADM is responsible for external security, cooperating with police on internal security, and responding to natural disasters and other emergencies; the primary focus of the FADM is countering an insurgency in the northern province of Cabo Delgado by militants affiliated with the Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham terrorist group (ISIS-Mozambique; known locally as Ahl al-Sunna wal-Jama‘a); since 2017, the conflict has claimed an estimated 6,000 lives and displaced an estimated one million persons; at Mozambique's request, Rwanda and several southern African countries under the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) deployed forces to Mozambique to combat the insurgency in 2021; the SADC forces departed in 2024; as of 2025, Rwanda continued to provide approximately 3,000 military and police personnel to assist Mozambican Defense and Security Forces, along with several hundred Tanzanian troops; the EU has also provided training assistance (2025)
MILITARY POWER 43.26/100 — The Magna Military Power score is our 0–100 measure of causal military capability — 24 dimensions (mass, equipment, readiness, projection, industry, nuclear deterrence), aggregated through a dependency graph, never by simple addition.
Momentum 0 — Quarterly momentum: the Bureau's read on the country's trajectory over the last quarter, from −10 (deteriorating fast) to +10 (accelerating).
A neutral quarter in the truest sense: nothing happened that altered the country's course or standing.
The score records absence of momentum honestly — the deeper currents continue, unmoved by the calendar.
