Force structure, readiness, power projection, and deterrence: the Bureau’s strategic assessment of Morocco’s military capability — scored 0–100 across 24 causal dimensions.
The 36.88/100 rests first on Combat experience (100.00), Readiness & training (85.00), Command & control (80.00). The binding constraints: Air power (8.00), Submarine force (8.00), Nuclear survivability (6.50) — in a causal model, capability can never rise above its weakest observed link. What would move the needle: Air power (8.00) — the weak link in the spending → equipment → readiness → capability chain.
2 of 24 dimensions could not be observed (Missile forces, Air defense); missing data caps the score — it never inflates it.
Assessment coverage: 95.7% — 22 of 24 dimensions observed. Kernel v10, run 2026-10-04; evidence snapshot: CIA World Factbook 2026-09-28, SIPRI arms-producer revenue, v9 nuclear taxonomy.
Kernel assessment: Air power 8.00/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Kernel assessment: Land warfare 57.90/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Kernel assessment: Naval power 33.40/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Missile forces could not be observed in this assessment — missing data caps the score, it is never treated as zero.
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Status: non-nuclear-weapon state
Royal Moroccan Armed Forces (FAR): Royal Moroccan Army (includes the Moroccan Royal Guard), Royal Moroccan Navy (includes Coast Guard, marines), Royal Moroccan Air Force, Moroccan Royal Guard, Royal Moroccan Gendarmerie Ministry of Interior: General Directorate for National Security (DGSN; aka National Police), Auxiliary Forces (2025)
estimated 220,000 active Armed Forces (175,000 Army; 10,000 Navy; 15,000 Air Force, 20,000 Gendarmerie) (2025)
the Moroccan military's inventory is mostly a mix of older and some more modern armaments from France and the US (2025)
19-25 years of age for 12-month compulsory and voluntary military service for men and women (2025)
775 Central African Republic (MINUSCA); 890 Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) (2025)
the Royal Armed Forces (FAR) are responsible for protecting Morocco’s national interests, sovereignty, and territorial integrity; key areas of concern for the FAR include international terrorism, maritime security, and regional challenges such as the Polisario Front in Moroccan Sahara and Algeria; the Polisario Front (Popular Front for the Liberation of Saguia el Hamra and Rio de Oro), an organization that seeks the independence of Moroccan Sahara, disputes Morocco’s claim of sovereignty over the territory; Moroccan and Polisario forces fought intermittently from 1975, when Spain relinquished colonial authority over the territory, until a 1991 cease-fire and the establishment of a UN peacekeeping mission; the Polisario withdrew from the cease-fire in November 2020, and since then there have been reports of low-intensity hostilities between Morocco and the Polisario Front across the 2,500-kilometer-long berm built in 1987 that separates the two sides; Algeria is seen as a regional rival and has openly backed the Polisario Front the FAR participates in international peacekeeping operations, as well as both bilateral and multinational training exercises; it has relations with a variety of partners including the militaries of France, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Spain, and the US, as well as NATO, the Arab League, and the African Union; Morocco has Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA) status with the US, a designation under US law that provides foreign partners with certain benefits in the areas of defense trade and security cooperation the FAR was created in May 1956; Moroccans were recruited for service in the Spahi and Tirailleur regiments of the French Army during the period of the French protectorate (1912-1956), and Moroccans fought under the French Army during both World Wars, as well as the First Indochina War (1946-1954); the Spanish Army recruited Moroccans from the Spanish Protectorate during both the Rif War (1921-26) and the Spanish Civil War (1936-39) the UN Mission for the Referendum in Moroccan Sahara (MINURSO) was established by Security Council resolution 690 in April 1991 in accordance with settlement proposals accepted in August 1988 by Morocco and the Polisario Front; MINURSO was unable to carry out all the original settlement proposals, but continues to monitor the cease-fire and reduce the threat of mines and unexploded ordnance, and has provided logistic support to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) (2025)
MILITARY POWER 36.88/100 — The Magna Military Power score is our 0–100 measure of causal military capability — 24 dimensions (mass, equipment, readiness, projection, industry, nuclear deterrence), aggregated through a dependency graph, never by simple addition.
Momentum 0 — Quarterly momentum: the Bureau's read on the country's trajectory over the last quarter, from −10 (deteriorating fast) to +10 (accelerating).
The September 23 legislative elections put PAM on top with 97 seats, and Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri took office September 29 as Morocco's first woman head of government — a historic handover; coalition talks now decide the pace.
Offsetting forces kept the score flat: the Ceuta crossing crisis in July, against World Cup infrastructure barrelling ahead and steady macro data. A mixed quarter, honestly netted at zero.
