Force structure, readiness, power projection, and deterrence: the Bureau’s strategic assessment of Iraq’s military capability — scored 0–100 across 24 causal dimensions.
The 26.54/100 rests first on Combat experience (75.00), Force mass (65.36), Command & control (65.00). The binding constraints: Air power (8.00), Submarine force (8.00), Nuclear survivability (6.50) — in a causal model, capability can never rise above its weakest observed link. What would move the needle: Air power (8.00) — the weak link in the spending → equipment → readiness → capability chain.
6 of 24 dimensions could not be observed (ISR & intelligence, Missile forces, Air defense, Cyber & space, Strategic lift, Expeditionary capability); missing data caps the score — it never inflates it.
Assessment coverage: 78.3% — 18 of 24 dimensions observed. Kernel v10, run 2026-10-04; evidence snapshot: CIA World Factbook 2026-09-28, SIPRI arms-producer revenue, v9 nuclear taxonomy.
Kernel assessment: Air power 8.00/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Kernel assessment: Land warfare 57.77/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Kernel assessment: Naval power 22.80/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Missile forces could not be observed in this assessment — missing data caps the score, it is never treated as zero.
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Status: non-nuclear-weapon state (NPT party)
Ministry of Defense: Iraqi Army, Iraqi Navy, Iraqi Air Force Office of the Prime Minister: Iraqi Counterterrorism Service (CTS); Popular Mobilization Committee (PMC) Ministry of Interior: Federal Police Forces Command, Border Guard Forces Command, Federal Intelligence and Investigations Agency, Emergency Response Division, Facilities Protection Directorate, and Provincial Police; Ministry of Oil: Energy Police Directorate (2025)
estimated 200,000 active armed forces personnel under the Ministry of Defense (Army, Aviation Command, Air/Air Defense, Navy, Special Forces); approximately 20-25,000 National-Level Security Forces Ministry of Peshmerga: estimated 150,000 active personnel Popular Mobilization Forces: estimated 200,000 militia (2025)
the Iraqi military's inventory includes a mix of European, Russian, Soviet-era, and US armaments (2025)
18 years of age for voluntary military service; no conscription (2025)
the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) are primarily focused on internal and border security; they are actively conducting counterinsurgency and counterterrorism operations against the Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham (ISIS) terrorist group, particularly in northern and western Iraq; the operations include securing the border with Syria; the Kurdish Security Forces, as well as are also active in conducting operations against ISIS two international military task forces operate in Iraq to assist the country's security forces at the request of the Iraqi Government; in 2018, NATO established an advisory, training and capacity-building mission for the Iraqi military known as the NATO Mission Iraq (NMI); in December 2021, the US-led Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR) transitioned from a combat role to an advise, assist, and enable role (2025)
MILITARY POWER 26.54/100 — The Magna Military Power score is our 0–100 measure of causal military capability — 24 dimensions (mass, equipment, readiness, projection, industry, nuclear deterrence), aggregated through a dependency graph, never by simple addition.
Momentum 0 — Quarterly momentum: the Bureau's read on the country's trajectory over the last quarter, from −10 (deteriorating fast) to +10 (accelerating).
A quiet quarter: no major shocks, no breakthroughs. The country's trajectory is set by structural forces larger than any single season.
The honest reading is steadiness — neither crisis nor windfall — with the long currents of demography, trade and institutions deciding more than any three months.
