Haiti — Military Capability Assessment

The 38.03/100 rests first on Force mass (73.00), Land warfare (73.00), Command & control (65.00). The binding constraints: Air power (8.00), Submarine force (8.00), Nuclear survivability (6.50) — in a causal model, capability can never rise above its weakest observed link. What would move the needle: Air power (8.00) — the weak link in the spending → equipment → readiness → capability chain.

• Alliance architecture adds a +5.78 bonus.
• Nuclear deterrence contributes a capped +0.71 bonus — it cannot manufacture top-tier conventional standing on its own.
• Force mass is capped by what equipment, training and sustainment can actually support — headcount alone scores nothing.

10 of 24 dimensions could not be observed (Equipment quality, ISR & intelligence, Missile forces, Air defense, Cyber & space, Strategic lift…); missing data caps the score — it never inflates it.

The six sub-scores

All 24 causal dimensions

Assessment coverage: 60.9% — 14 of 24 dimensions observed. Kernel v10, run 2026-10-04; evidence snapshot: CIA World Factbook 2026-09-28, SIPRI arms-producer revenue, v9 nuclear taxonomy.

Kernel assessment: Air power 8.00/100 (observed).

Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.

Kernel assessment: Land warfare 73.00/100 (observed).

Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.

Kernel assessment: Naval power 28.80/100 (observed).

Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.

Missile forces could not be observed in this assessment — missing data caps the score, it is never treated as zero.

Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.

Status: non-nuclear-weapon state

the Haitian Armed Forces (FAdH): Army Ministry of Justice and Public Security: Haitian National Police (Police Nationale d'Haïti or PNH) (2025)

estimates vary; up to 2,000 trained military personnel (the force is planned to eventually have around 5,000 personnel); estimates for the National Police range from a low of 9,000 to a high of about 13,000 (2025)

in recent years, Canada, Taiwan, UAE, and the US have provided some equipment to the Haitian security forces, including vehicles (2025)

men and women 18-25 may volunteer for the FAdH (2023)

Haiti's military was disbanded in 1995 after it participated in multiple coups and was accused of other political interference and human rights violations; the military was reinstated by former President MOISE in 2017 after the UN ended its peacekeeping operation in Haiti; the reconstituted military established an Army command in 2018 and has received some training assistance from Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador, France, and Mexico; the military’s stated mission is to assist with natural disaster relief, border security, and combating transnational crime; in 2023, Prime Minister HENRY called upon the military to assist the National Police (PNH) in combating armed gangs, which have overwhelmed the PNH, killed hundreds of Haitians, and seized control of swaths of territory, including much of the capital Port-au-Prince, since the assassination of President MOISE in 2021 in 2023, the UN Security Council approved the deployment of a Kenya-led multinational security support mission (MSS) to help bring gang violence under control; the first contingent of MSS personnel from the Kenya National Police Service arrived in mid-2024; other countries pledging forces included the Bahamas, Bangladesh, Barbados, Benin, Chad, and Jamaica; the mission is slated to have a total of 2,500 personnel (2025)