Force structure, readiness, power projection, and deterrence: the Bureau’s strategic assessment of Guinea-Bissau’s military capability — scored 0–100 across 24 causal dimensions.
The 39.06/100 rests first on Mobilization (70.00), Readiness & training (70.00), Logistics (70.00). The binding constraints: Air power (8.00), Submarine force (8.00), Nuclear survivability (6.50) — in a causal model, capability can never rise above its weakest observed link. What would move the needle: Air power (8.00) — the weak link in the spending → equipment → readiness → capability chain.
10 of 24 dimensions could not be observed (Equipment quality, ISR & intelligence, Missile forces, Air defense, Cyber & space, Strategic lift…); missing data caps the score — it never inflates it.
Assessment coverage: 60.9% — 14 of 24 dimensions observed. Kernel v10, run 2026-10-04; evidence snapshot: CIA World Factbook 2026-09-28, SIPRI arms-producer revenue, v9 nuclear taxonomy.
Kernel assessment: Air power 8.00/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Kernel assessment: Land warfare 64.00/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Kernel assessment: Naval power 22.80/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Missile forces could not be observed in this assessment — missing data caps the score, it is never treated as zero.
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Status: Non-nuclear-weapon state; party to the NPT
People's Revolutionary Armed Force (Forcas Armadas Revolucionarias do Povo or FARP): Army, Navy, Air Force Ministry of Internal Administration: National Guard (a gendarmerie force), Public Order Police, Border Police, Rapid Intervention Police, Maritime Police (2025)
estimated 4,000 active FARP (2025)
the FARP is outfitted mostly with Soviet-era weapons and equipment (2025)
18-25 years of age for selective compulsory military service for men and women (Air Force service is voluntary) (2025)
the Armed Forces (FARP) are focused on external security, but also has some internal security duties; the FARP and the paramilitary National Guard have been influential in the country’s politics since independence and have attempted several coups; since the 2000s, the FARP has undergone various attempts at defense and security sector reforms under the auspices of the African Union, the EU, the Economic Community of West Africa (ECOWAS), and the UN (2025)
MILITARY POWER 39.06/100 — The Magna Military Power score is our 0–100 measure of causal military capability — 24 dimensions (mass, equipment, readiness, projection, industry, nuclear deterrence), aggregated through a dependency graph, never by simple addition.
Momentum 0 — Quarterly momentum: the Bureau's read on the country's trajectory over the last quarter, from −10 (deteriorating fast) to +10 (accelerating).
An uneventful quarter, recorded without embellishment: no breakthrough to celebrate, no setback to mourn.
The longer forces — demographics, trade routes, regional balances — kept doing what they do, and the country rode them steadily.
