Force structure, readiness, power projection, and deterrence: the Bureau’s strategic assessment of Grenada’s military capability — scored 0–100 across 24 causal dimensions.
The 32.81/100 rests first on Command & control (65.00), Force mass (49.00), Land warfare (49.00). The binding constraints: Air power (8.00), Submarine force (8.00), Nuclear survivability (6.50) — in a causal model, capability can never rise above its weakest observed link. What would move the needle: Air power (8.00) — the weak link in the spending → equipment → readiness → capability chain.
13 of 24 dimensions could not be observed (Mobilization, Equipment quality, Readiness & training, ISR & intelligence, Missile forces, Air defense…); missing data caps the score — it never inflates it.
Assessment coverage: 47.8% — 11 of 24 dimensions observed. Kernel v10, run 2026-10-04; evidence snapshot: CIA World Factbook 2026-09-28, SIPRI arms-producer revenue, v9 nuclear taxonomy.
Kernel assessment: Air power 8.00/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Kernel assessment: Land warfare 49.00/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Kernel assessment: Naval power 22.80/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Missile forces could not be observed in this assessment — missing data caps the score, it is never treated as zero.
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Status: —
no regular military forces; the Royal Grenada Police Force (under the Ministry of National Security) includes a Coast Guard and a paramilitary Special Services Unit (2025)
Grenada joined the Caribbean Regional Security System (RSS) in 1985; RSS signatories (Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Dominica, Guyana, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines) agreed to prepare contingency plans and assist one another, on request, in national emergencies, prevention of smuggling, search and rescue, immigration control, fishery protection, customs and excise control, maritime policing duties, protection of off-shore installations, pollution control, national and other disasters, and threats to national security (2025)
MILITARY POWER 32.81/100 — The Magna Military Power score is our 0–100 measure of causal military capability — 24 dimensions (mass, equipment, readiness, projection, industry, nuclear deterrence), aggregated through a dependency graph, never by simple addition.
Momentum 0 — Quarterly momentum: the Bureau's read on the country's trajectory over the last quarter, from −10 (deteriorating fast) to +10 (accelerating).
A quiet quarter: no major shocks, no breakthroughs. The country's trajectory is set by structural forces larger than any single season.
The honest reading is steadiness — neither crisis nor windfall — with the long currents of demography, trade and institutions deciding more than any three months.
