Force structure, readiness, power projection, and deterrence: the Bureau’s strategic assessment of Chad’s military capability — scored 0–100 across 24 causal dimensions.
The 41.95/100 rests first on Mobilization (85.00), Readiness & training (85.00), Logistics (85.00). The binding constraints: Air power (8.00), Submarine force (8.00), Nuclear survivability (6.50) — in a causal model, capability can never rise above its weakest observed link. What would move the needle: Air power (8.00) — the weak link in the spending → equipment → readiness → capability chain.
10 of 24 dimensions could not be observed (Equipment quality, ISR & intelligence, Missile forces, Air defense, Cyber & space, Strategic lift…); missing data caps the score — it never inflates it.
Assessment coverage: 60.9% — 14 of 24 dimensions observed. Kernel v10, run 2026-10-04; evidence snapshot: CIA World Factbook 2026-09-28, SIPRI arms-producer revenue, v9 nuclear taxonomy.
Kernel assessment: Air power 8.00/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Kernel assessment: Land warfare 76.00/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Kernel assessment: Naval power 12.80/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Missile forces could not be observed in this assessment — missing data caps the score, it is never treated as zero.
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Status: Non-nuclear-weapon state; party to the NPT
Chadian National Army (Armee Nationale du Tchad, ANT): Ground Forces (l'Armee de Terre, AdT), Chadian Air Force (l'Armee de l'Air Tchadienne, AAT), Chadian National Gendarmerie; General Direction of the Security Services of State Institutions (Direction Generale des Services de Securite des Institutions de l'Etat, GDSSIE) Ministry of Public Security and Immigration: National Nomadic Guard of Chad (GNNT) (2025)
estimated 35-40,000 active Chadian National Army personnel (2025)
the ANT has a mix of older, secondhand, and some more modern armaments from a variety of suppliers, including Brazil, China, France, Russia/former Soviet Union, Türkiye, Ukraine, and the UAE (2025)
18-25 for voluntary service; men subject to 18-36 months of compulsory service at age 20; women are subject to 12 months of compulsory military or civic service at age 21 (2025)
note: Chad has committed approximately 1,000-1,500 troops to the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) against Boko Haram and other terrorist groups operating in the general area of the Lake Chad Basin and along Nigeria's northeast border; national MNJTF troop contingents are deployed within their own territories, although cross‐border operations are conducted periodically
internal security is the primary focus of the Chadian National Army, and it is actively engaged in counterinsurgency operations against multiple terrorist and rebel groups; the terrorist groups Boko Haram and Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham in West Africa operate in the Lake Chad Basin area; meanwhile, a number of anti-government militias operate in northern Chad, some from bases in southern Libya, including the FACT (Front pour le Changement et la Concorde au Tchad), the Military Command Council for the Salvation of the Republic (le Conseil de Commandement Militaire pour le salut de la République or CCSMR), the Union of Forces for Democracy and Development (le Union des Forces pour la Démocratie et le Développement or UFDD), and the Union of Resistance Forces (le Union des Forces de la Résistance UFR); former Chadian President Idriss DEBY was killed in April 2021 during fighting between the FACT and government forces (2025)
MILITARY POWER 41.95/100 — The Magna Military Power score is our 0–100 measure of causal military capability — 24 dimensions (mass, equipment, readiness, projection, industry, nuclear deterrence), aggregated through a dependency graph, never by simple addition.
Momentum 0 — Quarterly momentum: the Bureau's read on the country's trajectory over the last quarter, from −10 (deteriorating fast) to +10 (accelerating).
Steadiness was the quarter's defining trait: no rupture, no windfall, no surprise strong enough to move the score.
The trajectory remains set by fundamentals that change over years, not quarters — and this quarter changed little.
