Force structure, readiness, power projection, and deterrence: the Bureau’s strategic assessment of Antigua and Barbuda’s military capability — scored 0–100 across 24 causal dimensions.
The 30.86/100 rests first on Command & control (65.00), Alliances (48.12), Force mass (48.00). The binding constraints: Air power (8.00), Submarine force (8.00), Nuclear survivability (6.50) — in a causal model, capability can never rise above its weakest observed link. What would move the needle: Air power (8.00) — the weak link in the spending → equipment → readiness → capability chain.
10 of 24 dimensions could not be observed (Equipment quality, ISR & intelligence, Missile forces, Air defense, Cyber & space, Strategic lift…); missing data caps the score — it never inflates it.
Assessment coverage: 60.9% — 14 of 24 dimensions observed. Kernel v10, run 2026-10-04; evidence snapshot: CIA World Factbook 2026-09-28, SIPRI arms-producer revenue, v9 nuclear taxonomy.
Kernel assessment: Air power 8.00/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Kernel assessment: Land warfare 48.00/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Kernel assessment: Naval power 22.80/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Missile forces could not be observed in this assessment — missing data caps the score, it is never treated as zero.
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Status: non-nuclear-weapon state
Antigua and Barbuda Defense Force (ABDF): Antigua and Barbuda Regiment, Air Wing, Coast Guard Royal Police Force of Antigua and Barbuda (RPFAB) (2025)
approximately 300 active Defense Force personnel (2025)
the ABDF's equipment inventory is limited to small arms, light weapons, and soft-skin vehicles; the Coast Guard maintains ex-US patrol vessels and some smaller boats (2025)
18-23 years of age for voluntary military service for both men and women; no conscription (2025)
the ABDF’s responsibilities include providing for internal security and support to the police in maintaining law and order, interdicting narcotics smuggling, responding to natural disasters, and monitoring the country’s territorial waters and maritime resources; established in 1981 from colonial forces originally created in 1897, it is one of the world’s smallest militaries the country has been a member of the Caribbean Regional Security System (RSS) since its creation in 1982; RSS signatories (Barbados, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines) agreed to prepare contingency plans and assist one another, on request, in national emergencies, prevention of smuggling, search and rescue, immigration control, fishery protection, customs and excise control, maritime policing duties, protection of off-shore installations, pollution control, national and other disasters, and threats to national security (2025)
MILITARY POWER 30.86/100 — The Magna Military Power score is our 0–100 measure of causal military capability — 24 dimensions (mass, equipment, readiness, projection, industry, nuclear deterrence), aggregated through a dependency graph, never by simple addition.
Momentum 0 — Quarterly momentum: the Bureau's read on the country's trajectory over the last quarter, from −10 (deteriorating fast) to +10 (accelerating).
Nothing in Jul–Sep 2026 moved the needle. The institutions functioned, the economy ran its course, and the world looked elsewhere.
That is the honest note: a quarter of normalcy, scored as such.
