Force structure, readiness, power projection, and deterrence: the Bureau’s strategic assessment of Afghanistan’s military capability — scored 0–100 across 24 causal dimensions.
The 28.74/100 rests first on Combat experience (75.00), Command & control (65.00), Force mass (64.10). The binding constraints: Air power (8.00), Submarine force (8.00), Nuclear survivability (6.50) — in a causal model, capability can never rise above its weakest observed link. What would move the needle: Air power (8.00) — the weak link in the spending → equipment → readiness → capability chain.
10 of 24 dimensions could not be observed (Equipment quality, ISR & intelligence, Missile forces, Air defense, Cyber & space, Strategic lift…); missing data caps the score — it never inflates it.
Assessment coverage: 60.9% — 14 of 24 dimensions observed. Kernel v10, run 2026-10-04; evidence snapshot: CIA World Factbook 2026-09-28, SIPRI arms-producer revenue, v9 nuclear taxonomy.
Kernel assessment: Air power 8.00/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Kernel assessment: Land warfare 64.10/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Kernel assessment: Naval power 12.80/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Missile forces could not be observed in this assessment — missing data caps the score, it is never treated as zero.
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Status: non-nuclear-weapon state (NPT party)
the Taliban claims authority over a Ministry of Defense and a National Army (aka Army of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, Islamic Emirate Army, or Afghan Army); it has also formed police forces under a Ministry of Interior (2025)
the Taliban claims to have 190,000 under the Ministry of Defense and 215,000 under the Ministry of Interior (2025)
the Taliban military and security forces are equipped with armaments captured in 2021 from the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces, which were largely equipped with Russian/Soviet-era and US material (2025)
service is voluntary; there is no conscription (2023)
the Taliban’s key security priorities are border and internal security; specific issues have included tensions with Pakistan along their shared border, armed anti-Taliban resistance elements, and the Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham - Khorasan (ISIS-K) terrorist group (2025)
MILITARY POWER 28.74/100 — The Magna Military Power score is our 0–100 measure of causal military capability — 24 dimensions (mass, equipment, readiness, projection, industry, nuclear deterrence), aggregated through a dependency graph, never by simple addition.
Momentum 0 — Quarterly momentum: the Bureau's read on the country's trajectory over the last quarter, from −10 (deteriorating fast) to +10 (accelerating).
Steadiness was the quarter's defining trait: no rupture, no windfall, no surprise strong enough to move the score.
The trajectory remains set by fundamentals that change over years, not quarters — and this quarter changed little.
